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Car Type Checkpoints Boxcars: Market dead OT Hoppers:Orders for new cars will be very soft for a while Tank Cars: Ethanol production will surpass 12B gallons in 2010 and chemical output in general is up much higher than expected. Car surpluses should go away in 2010. Refrigerated Cars: Cost/Benefit mismatch |
Railcar DevelopmentsMay 20, 2010 Railcar market continues to be misunderstood Wilbur Ross’s private equity firm recently purchased 4,000 railcars for around $230M and gave the management contract for the cars to Greenbrier, its rail industry partner. In a press release, Ross said that last year one third of all railcars were idle and that this year that figure has been cut in half. He is partially mistaken. While the real numbers may look better, the situation is much worse and a recovery in the leasing market for most car types is a long way off. http://www.glgroup.com/Council-Member/Toby-Kolstad-85066.html?obj=search&Keyword=kolstad May 15, 2010 New railcar delivery forecast may be too optimistic Some forecasters are predicting that new railcar production will climb back to normal levels within a few years. That is a hopeful goal, but the problems affecting two major car types that historically have accounted for 60% of the new railcar market may put it out of reach. Demand for coal and imported goods (not including oil) may take a little longer to recover than the forecasts envision. http://www.glgroup.com/Council-Member/Toby-Kolstad-85066.html?obj=search&Keyword=kolstad March 2, 2010 How does a 15% decline in traffic idle 30% of railcar fleet? There are approximately 1.6 million railcars in North America, and various reports have shown over a third of them to be surplus to the needs of the railroad industry or its shippers during the past year. Traffic only declined 15% during the year, and there were only a few surplus cars before the recession began, so where did all the surplus equipment arise? http://www.glgroup.com/Council-Member/Toby-Kolstad-85066.html?obj=search&Keyword=kolstad March 2, 2010 Odds & Ends CN ordered 400 new boxcars and 750 new gondola cars from National Steel at the end of the year for its own fleet, and CSX ordered 3,000 coal cars from FreightCar America for delivery in 2010 and 2011. The orders only provided confirmation that deliveries will be clost to 14,000 cars in 2010, despite the low level of backlogged orders at the start of the year. Ethanol production is running at an annual rate 12B gallons and most tank cars that have been built for that industry should be in active service by the end of the year, if not sooner. The same should be true for the jumbo covered hoppers built for the DDG byproduct. Grain traffic is also back up and the surplus fleet of large covered hoppers should be disappearing. If farmers plant another bumper crop this summer and exports hold up, the surplus should soon disappear. Orders for new cars might be here sooner than expected. March 2, 2010 New Car Stats The tables for the 3rd and 4th quarters didn't look appreciably different than the one posted on September 8th, although deliveries declined thoughout the year and ended up south of 22,000 cars, almost matching the forecasts made at the start of the year. The fourth quarter table will be posted next month. September 8 , 2009 New Car Stats
May 7 , 2009 New Car Deliveries/Orders/Backlogs for the 1Q09 New railcar deliveries in the first quarter of 2009 fell to 7,657 cars, down sharply from the 14,459 cars produced in the fourth quarter of 2008. The falloff in deliveries shows rather dramatically the effect of the Economic Stimulus Package of 2008 which contained an accelerated depreciation option for new rail assets purchased before Dec. 31, 2009. Unfortunately, many of the railcars might have been delivered in 2009 and the decrease in production might not have been as great in 2009 as is now expected. Only 2,374 new railcars were ordered compared with 4,259 cars in the fourth quarter, confirming expectations that production will keep falling throughout 2009 and into 2010. This industry has a long way to fall before the bottom of the trough is reached in this business cycle.
March 16 , 2009 New Car Stats
October 6 , 2008 Railcar deliveries will fall again in 2009 by a significant amount The stock prices of all railcar builders declined after a recent prediction by a KeyBank analyst that railcar deliveries will fall in 2009. He estimated that deliveries in 2009 would fall to around 37,000 cars from the 45,000 to 50,000 cars expected this year. It is hard to argue with this forecast except that it might be a little too optimistic if there is a severe economic contraction in 2009. However, several more weeks will be needed before such a dreary scenario can be painted. http://www.glgroup.com/Council-Member/Toby-Kolstad-85066.html?obj=search&Keyword=kolstad
June 11 , 2008 Production of coal cars may not significantly increase in future There is much hope that orders for new coal cars will increase in the near future, lifting production rates at Freightcar America (RAIL). Coal exports are up almost 80% from a few years ago and domestic demand should increase significantly when the 52 new coal-fired generating plants which are currently under construction come online. The latter are expected to require about 20,000 railcars to move coal from the mines to the utilities. Coal production is up 1.1% in 2008 and railcar loads are up 3.1% through July. So why are orders for new cars so low? http://www.glgroup.com/Council-Member/Toby-Kolstad-85066.html?obj=search&Keyword=kolstad June 11 , 2008 Leasing companies order and/or buy railcars, not railroad companies; and therein lays the problem The in Forbes article about the large number of surplus railcars, the author incorrectly blames the railroad companies for stocking up on ethanol cars until the “ethanol bubble burst” and they realized they had built too many cars. In truth, railcar leasing companies ordered the cars after hearing requests and projections by ethanol companies about the need for more equipment to handle future production from new capacity that was either planned or already under construction. That new capacity is still coming online, albeit at a pace much slower than originally expected, and there may be a few thousand “surplus” cars until production catches up with car supply in 2009. The ethanol phenomenon has mitigated some of the other problems faced by the railcar industry that can be more correctly blamed on the railroads. http://www.glgroup.com/Council-Member/Toby-Kolstad-85066.html?obj=search&Keyword=kolstad May 8 , 2008 The first quarter's new railcar order-delivery-backlog report was finally issued. Orders fell to 10,484, deliveries held to around 14,000 cars, and backlogs fell to around 65,000 cars due to the cancellation of many orders for intermodal and ethanol equipment. More details will follow at a later date. March 27 , 2008 Limited ethanol distribution channels and slowing production growth means surplus railroad tank cars Two years ago, the ethanol industry went into overdrive in expanding production facilities and ordering railroad tank cars to move the expected flood of new production. No one, however, looked at how the ethanol was to be handled at the customer end of the distribution network and that has produced a major problem for the new industry. Even with corn prices well above $5.00 per bushel, ethanol producers could make about $0.20/per gallon if they could get their product to the final customer, the US motorist. Unfortunately, there are only four terminals ready to handle unit trains of ethanol and the shipment of small carload lots is just too slow to move the expected production. Tank car lessors who ordered large numbers of railcars to move ethanol have been left holding the bag this time waiting for the gasoline distributors to get with the program. http://www.glgroup.com/Council-Member/Toby-Kolstad-85066.html?obj=search&Keyword=kolstad February 20, 2008 Car Totals
Octobert 25 , 2007 Car Totals Fourth quarter railcar deliveries amounted to 14, 862 cars, continuing a slow decline in production that started in the beginning of the year. Orders for new equipment reached 23,722 cars, although 11,000 of these are assumed to be related to a reported multi-year order for new tank cars running from 2009 to 2018. Without the latter orders, the quarterly total would have been only 12,722, which is more in line with the RTF forecasts of 48,000 cars in 2008. Car type totals will be published in March, but are now available to anyone who requests them. Octobert 25 , 2007 Car Totals Railcar deliveries were projected last fall to total around 61,500 cars for the year ahead, and the reported totals through the 3rd quarter are making that prediction look awfully close right now.
August 20 , 2007 Car Totals
July 18, 2007 Second quarter ARCI totals. Railcar orders during the second quarter reached only 11,595 cars, and deliveries fell to 16,143 units. We forecasted the total deliveries for the year will only be about 62,000 cars, and we see no reason to change that prediction. Quarterly deliveries are expected to continue to decline in the second half of the year and to fall even further in 2008. There were very few surprises in the individual car type totals, except for the 500 boxcar orders that were reported. Specific car totals will be posted later. July 11, 2007 Car Totals
July 11, 2007 Car Totals Watch for 2006 totals on later date Dec. 12, 2006 Car Totals
October 26, 2006 Third quarter orders, deliveries, and backlogs Twelve thousand more tank cars were ordered during the 3Q06, bring the backlog to 34, 148 cars, enough to carry production into 2009 at the current rate and well into 2008 even if production can be ramped up to 18,500 cars in 2007. The ethanol buildup knows no bounds for the present, but the number of cars on order suggests that either the industry is shooting for 12 billion gallons by 2012, or there will be a surplus of tank cars suitable for handling ethanol in a few years. If not for the DDG and grain covered hoper cars and the ethanol tank cars, the orders in the third quarter looked rather poor: (1) very few coal cars; (2) no boxcars and few flatcars; (3) and almost no intermodal cars were ordered. The latter situation is a surprise, given the 6.5% growth in intermodal traffic so far this year. Rumors of a small surplus persist and partially explain the lack of orders, but the traffic will eventually demand more cars. July 28, 2006 Tank Cars While orders for most other car types are decreasing, demand for new tank cars far exceeds the production capacity of the new car builders. So far in 2006, over 18,000 cars have been ordered and the backlog at the end of the second quarter was 25,564 cars, over two years production at the current rate of delivery. Only three car builders produce this type of car, and they are the oldest companies in the industry, tracing their roots back to the late 1800s: (1) Union Tank Car is privately owned by the Pritzker family, but (2) Trinity Industries (TRN) and (3) American Railcar (ARII) are public companies. The ARII plant that produces tank cars was damaged by a tornado during the second quarter and full production is not expected to resume until September. July 28, 2006 Car Totals
May 2, 2006 Coal Cars
April 18, 2006 New Car Deliveries, Orders, Backlogs First Quarter Numbers are surprisingly high, but RTF forecasts for year looks good. Call for updates. Numbers won't be posted until May. April 18, 2006 Covered Hopper Cars You can’t make a lot of ethanol without producing tons of dried distiller’s grains (DDGs). More of the stuff is being made than the dairy and beef cattle in the Midwest can handle, so ethanol producers have to ship the feed supplement to distant markets. Past attempts to ship by rail were not that successful due to the small supply of 6200cf jumbo covered hopper cars and the problems with unloading the DDG products. This must have been resolved because the surge in demand for jumbo covered hopper cars is greater than what might have been expected from plastic pellet producers. April 13, 2006 Tank Cars There has been much written and reported by the press and media concerning the shortage of ethanol and the problems with the railroad distribution of this product. The shortage has arisen because ethanol is the only available substitute for MTBE, the oxygenation agent that made unleaded fuels possible. MTBE, which has been banned due to environmental and health problems, was imported by ship to the nation’s refineries which are mostly along the coasts. Ethanol is produced in the Midwest, from where there are no pipelines to gasoline distributors.
Tank car producers, (ARI, Union Tank, and Trinity), are rumored to be giving priority to the production of ethanol tank cars, and backlogging some orders for other types of tank cars. Last year 40% of all new tank car deliveries were reported to be for ethanol service. Perhaps the percentage has grown. A reported car shortage has increase tank car lease rates above the levels that might have been expected from their current production costs and the prevailing interest rates. March 13 , 2005 Car Totals The ARCI recently released the fourth quarter results from the railcar builders. Demand remains strong for almost all car types, with intermodal cars being the most notable exception. Deliveries increased for again, reflected the grwoing backlog of coal tank cars.
March 1, 2006 Tank Cars In the past few years, there have been a number of train derailments involving pressurized tank cars that were damaged enough to allow the release of their hazardous contents. Tragically, the release of the hazmat materials in three such incidents resulted in fatalities. Following the 2002 derailment in Minot ND in which one person died, the FRA conducted a study and found that the tank cars involved had been built before 1989, the year normalized steel was required in all pressurized tank car bodies. In the most recent derailment in Graniteville SC in which 12 people died, the tank car involved had been built in 1993 and was made of normalized steel. The FRA has planned a study of the current fleet of tank cars to see if there is a significant level of risk from the pre-1989 built cars.
Ahead of any such study, the AAR has announced that it intends to require the replacement of all pre-1989 built pressurized tank cars in the next 5-7 years. Needless to say, the AAR does not intend to reimburse the owners of such cars for the mandated early retirement. Opposition to this directive is strong and the support for the replacement of the pre-1989 cars in weak; but the AAR does not have to explain or justify its case in a court of law.
If this order becomes effective, 37,000 railcars will have to be replaced, adding approximately 6,000 new car builds per year to the normal demand for tank cars. Coupled with a potential demand for a similar number of tank cars to handle the growing needs of ethanol producers, could conceivably raise tank car deliveries to over 20,000 per year during the next several years. That is almost two time the current and very healthy delivery rate.
January 19, 2006 Tank Cars In a recent magazine article, the president of Union Tank Car reported that the 2004/2005/2006 new car totals for tank cars designed to move ethanol are 2,500, 4,000, and 5,000 cars respectively, representing 28%, 34%, and 45% of all new tank car deliveries during those years. Ethanol appears to be the main driver of new additions to the national tank car fleet. Projections for the future production of this fuel vary widely, but the rate of growth in recent years shows no signs of slowing. Consumers appear to favor ethanol blended gasoline over regular gasoline for two reasons: (1) it adds less pollutants to the environment; (2) if cost less per gallon. What they don’t seem to realize is that ethanol gets less miles per gallon than gasoline and the dollars per gallon that is saved at the pump is an illusion since more trips to the pump are necessary with ethanol than with straight gasoline. There is an extensive review of this product and the implications for new freight car deliveries in the 2006 North American Freight Car Market. January 11, 2006 Intermodal Cars CN is looking for 3,000 new doublestack container cars to meet an expected surge in traffic through its Prince Rupert container port in 2006. The traffic is expected to be diverted from other West Coast ports due to logistical savings CN is promising. It is a safe bet with minimum risks since CN can return TTX cars that it currently uses for intermodal traffic if the new Prince Rupert business does not grow as planned. TTX will most likely stay out of the market until demand for their cars becomes more apparent. December 22, 2005 Intermodal Cars TTX did not order new intermodal cars during the third quarter and no word has surfaced of any orders during the fourth quarter. As we predicted in our press release this summer, the numbers were not looking good for a continuation of the double digit growth in 2004 and early 2005. At the time, RTF projected a year-over-year gain of only 5.7% for 2005, not too far from the 5.9-6.0% increase expected when the final AAR data is released next month. New car deliveries during 2005 needed a 10% growth in loads to be fully utilized, and as a result of the shortfall, some doublestack cars were reported to be in storage during the normally busy third and fourth quarters. The prospects of increased traffic growth in 2006 are not encouraging at the present time and new car deliveries for the year should fall well short of the total 15,500 total expected for 2005.
November 14 , 2005 Car Totals The ARCI recently released the third quarter results from the railcar builders. Demand remains strong for almost all car types, with intermodal cars being the most notable exception. Also, deliveries did not increase for the first time in several quarters, perhaps signally that the top of the production cycle has been reached.
November 3, 2005 Covered Hopper Cars Ethanol producers are holding the DDG by-product a little long before loading it into railars and also drying the stuff for a little longer. These changes, together with bigger 42"x42” gravity gates, may solve the “caking” problem that has plagued the unloading operations for this product. In any event, orders surged for this car type in the third quarter, and many thousands will be needed if the move to ethanol continues. RTF recently completed a study of this industry and it appears that a new car type, a 6351cf covered hopper with extra large gravity gates, may keep Trinity and their competitors for this product in “high cotton” for quite a while.
October 5, 2005 Hopper Cars The demand for new coal cars seems to have no limit at least as far a traffic growth is concerned. We’ll have to wait for the stats to be published to get a better look, but there are rumors that some old fleets are to be replaced. For many years the Eastern carriers have allowed their fleets of manually discharged hoppers to age and retire without replacement, preferring to let utilities and coal companies acquire rapid discharge hoppers and rotary dump gondola cars for unit train operations. It is rumored that one and perhaps both Eastern carriers are investigating the economics of replacing their aged fleets with newer models. August 29, 2005 Intermodal Cars Revised Retail Sales numbers from the Federal Reserve show continued growth at a real (after inflation) rate of approximately 3.25% for the first half of the year. This is less than the inflation adjusted rate of 5.94% for 2004. Imported merchandize (excluding oil) is the other driver of intermodal loads and the rate of growth for the first half of 2005 is 12.2% compared to a 15.5% rate of growth for all of 2004. In recent weeks, the AAR has reported that intermodal loads have been running approximately 7% ahead of 2004 levels, which is higher than RFT had expected from the decrease in retail sales activity and higher than the 3.5% weekly rate of growth during the second quarter. It is often said that one should not discount the buying habits of the American consumer, but RFT thinks that there will be many bargains this Christmas because retailers have imported more goods than consumers will likely be able to afford. For the present however, if intermodal loads continue to grow at the present rate, TTX will most likely be back at the order window for more doublestack wells. Aug 8, 2005 Covered Hopper Cars The 2005 forecasted corn harvest has recently been cut by 16% and that for soybeans by over 10% due the draught in the Midwest, particularly Illinois. This should have a major impact on the demand for covered hopper equipment for the 2005- 2006 grain season. A 10% increase in the corn 2003 production, coupled by an increase in exports reversed a 10 year slide in grain shipments by rail and led to the recent surge in new car orders. A car surplus is almost certain unless the concurrent problems with barge shipments due to low water levels on the Mississippi River cause a diversion of river traffic to the rails. RTF dies not think the latter is very probable. July 25, 2005 The ARCI recently released the second quarter results from the railcar builders. Demand remains strong for almost all car types, with coal cars and intermodal equipment topping the list.
July 4, 2005 Non-Intermodal Flatcars There has been continued demand for new F Type flatcars, including centerbean cars for lumber service, as the housing boom continues into 2005. Utilization rates remain at historically low levels, partially reflecting the long transit times of the increasing number of lumber shipments from Canada. New centerbeam car designs including the depressed deck car for higher dried lumber capacities and the modified centerbeam to improve loading and unloading efficiencies continue the evolution of this car type, but not enough to make to older cars obsolete. If the new coalition of Canadian and U.S. interests groups recently formed to fight the import tariffs on Canadian lumber are successful, even more cars will be required in the future to handle the increased imports of Canadian Lumber. June 20, 2005 Boxcars TTX is rumored to be reviewing its purchase options. Car prices are still high, ranging from $80,000 to $100,000, depending on the make and model, and it is assumed that the TTX car hire rates would be high enough to give their Class I owners heartburn. When car hire deprescription was approved by the ICC in 1993, car hire rates were supposed to go up and down according to the supply and demand. During the 1990s when supplies were plentiful, market based car hire rates fell as predicted. Lately however, they are still very low, even though supplies of good Class A cars are getting scarce. June 6, 2005 Gondola Cars Steel companies and scrap dealers are complaining about the lack of an adequate number of railcars to haul their traffic this year. The worldwide demand for scrap iron and finished steel products outstripped supply in 2004 and the price of these commodities and products jumped significantly: 100% for scrap and almost 300% for finished steel. Shippers want to get every pound out the door before the price retreats as RTF has predicted, but there are not enough GB type gondola railcars to move the tonnage. This car type is subject to cyclical demand and the major railroads have all but asked the leasing companies, or perhaps they did ask TTX, to take over the ownership and management of the fleet. Railroads enjoyed a car surplus two years ago and private leasing companies were lucky to get 50% of their expected lease revenue for this car type. With no incentive to order new equipment, it is no wonder that the shortage arose. Moreover, with the high price of railcars these days, the railroads did not want to pay the TTX rates that would have been required if that company had purchased more cars for them this year. May 23, 2005 Intermodal Cars TTX placed orders with two builders for approximately 3000 new intermodal well cars, bringing the total orders placed so far this year for this car type to around 7,500 cars. If no additional cars are ordered for delivery next year, a car surplus may be avoided if business improves in the second half of the year. RFT is preparing a revised forecast of total intermodal loads for 2005, but more weekly data will be necessary before the short term model can be used with confidence. Retail sales, inflation, and import traffic are all pointing to a 4.5% gain for the year, a figure below the current year-to-year gains reported by the AAR. However, the weekly loadings are not trending as high as the first half gains; a few more weeks of data will be required before a press release with the revised forecasts can be issued. May 9, 2005 Boxcars No orders for new boxcars were received during the first quarter, completing the downward spiral that began in the second quarter of last year. As a result, boxcar deliveries are not expected to exceed 3,500 cars during 2005, down from 5,400 cars in 2004. The inflated cost of steel and the resulting high price of new boxcars are no doubt the main reasons for this decline in demand. Orders for new boxcars are dependent upon the car hire or daily use rates for these assets and the main U.S. railroads have steadfastly capped the rates they are willing to pay for the last several years. At today’s prices, the cost of the new cars has finally exceeded what the railroads are willing to pay. April 25, 2005 Coal Cars Orders for GT Gons and RD Hoppers totaled over 5,200 cars during the first quarter, outracing deliveries by almost two to one and increasing the backlog of coal cars to 14,788 cars. Coal traffic is growing and new railcar capacity is needed; moreover there are still old steel cars that can be retired. Many of the latter have been pulled from storage to help the railroads contend with the artificial demand that their slow train speeds created. But the pace of orders for new cars should give both investors and builders pause for concern that a bubble is building and a collapse in lease rates and new car orders similar to what occurred in 1999 may be around the corner. This development is not yet a certainty since the increasing traffic and problematic rail operations are keeping railcar supplies tight. But in the past, lessors have tended to error on the high side in meeting demand and the current situation seems vaguely familiar. April 11, 2005 Covered Hopper Cars-Grain Size Railroad car loadings remained high during the first quarter of 2005, albeit with some significant product and movement shifts that may have a significant impact on future car demand. Export shipments by rail to Mexico almost doubled, with the carload increase matching the decrease in carloads delivered to Texas Gulf ports. Perhaps KCS is converting rail/ship grain movements to Mexico via the UP and BNSF to all rail via its NAFTA lines. If so, the cycle times for the cars involved in the switch will increase significantly. The monthly volume might indicate a net increase in demand for approximately 2,000 more cars unless great improvements have been achieved by TFM in moving cars in and out of Mexico. Soybean shipments have greatly increased over 2004 levels, offsetting the decrease in wheat and corn shipments. It had been feared that export movements might fall across the board in 2005 due to foreign competition that was stunted by drought conditions in 2004..........April 14, 2005 We have been advised that all western carriers are sending grain traffic into Mexico via their rail connections and that there are destinations in Mexico that can handle unit train shipments in a timely manner. Hurray for progress; traffic will grow if cars are handled efficiently and returned quickly. March 28, 2005 Automotive Multilevel Flatcars STCC 37 Vehicles and Parts traffic is up slightly in 2005, but there is plenty of uncertainty for this traffic segment due to worries that the price of gas may affect the market for new automobiles and more importantly, the types of railcars that will be needed in the future. RTF has projected an annual demand for over 3,000 new flatcar platforms in the coming years. On the supply side, Freightcar America’s aluminum multilevel flatcar may finally provide some competition to the standard Thrall/Trinity multilevel autorack that had dominated the market for this car type in the past.
March 14, 2005 Intermodal Cars BNSF placed an order for almost 5000 doublestack wells with Greenbrier last week, with delivery scheduled into 2006. The 13,000 car backlog at the end of last year was expected to equal the total deliveries in 2005, representing a 6% increase in the fleet capacity. Intermodal loadings have been increasing at a slightly higher rate of 9% in recent months, with utilization rates inching up. Demand for more equipment was expected to lead to at least 10,000 or more orders during 2005 and this recent purchase should represent just 40% or less of the total orders.
February 14, 2005 Covered Hopper Cars—Grain size Once again the smart money is betting that there will be a surplus of 4750cf covered hoppers in the future and are selling their cars while they are still under lease. Prices today range between $15,000 and $21,000; the same cars could have been purchased between 2001 and 2004 for around $10,000. Even the latter price was thought too high since the value of future leases was not estimated to be greater than $8,000.
February 7, 2005 Coal Cars—Rapid Discharge Hoppers There had been many speculative orders for coal cars in the past several months, with most of them placed under lease before the actual delivery from the builder. With line space being filled, “real” orders are developing early due to the need to guarantee timely deliveries. In the unlikely event that train speeds improve and reduce the amount of artificial demand that has been created since 2003 by the longer turn times, a car surplus could develop. It is more probable that the train speeds will not improve until rail traffic begins to fall.
January 21, 2004 Boxcars Orders for new boxcars have plummeted, probably due to the price of steel and the high prices being quoted. A $90,000 TBOX probably does not make economic sense at the discounted daily rates being offered by TTX to its owners, even when the costs are averaged into an investment base including older cars. Other car owners will have a difficult time recovering their costs from offline users paying “market” based car hire rates.
October 21, 2004 Covered Hopper Cars Orders for jumbo covered hopper cars are increasing beyond expectations, with most of the new equipment destined for service on the BNSF. UP is also contributing to the surge in new car orders by refusing to allow OT-5 authority for cars that do not meet the 286k truck standards adopted in July of this year. Should export traffic decline, another surplus of older cars (ca 1980 builds) is almost a certainty. June 25, 2004 June 11, 2004 May 28, 2004 May 14, 2004 April 30, 2004
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